Due to well - known grounds , volume in Dutch horticulture were five percent lower this class . For next yr , ABN AMRO expect development again : 5 pct for gardening . decorative gardening may count on 7 percent growth in 2024 , concord to the bankers .
The bank forecasts volume growth for 2023 and 2024 for all agricultural subsectors . Overall , the camber concludes that many agrarian companies had a good twelvemonth in 2023 due to lower cost and increased prices compared to last year .
Volume development yr on years : dairy farm cattle , agriculture , pigs , floriculture , greenhouse horticulture , piscary
Greenhouse vegetables : Good year despite miserable volumesAfter a important bead in book in 2022 , greenhouse veg gardening face another decline this year . The main cause for this is the fact that a routine of operators give up and several did not or hardly turned on the light last winter . This is due to higher free energy prices at the beginning of this year .
Because gas prices are now low and less volatile , ABN AMRO does expect yield to increase again in 2024 . The acreage and , thus , cultivation will remain grim than before the vigour crisis , however , as not all of the acreage of those who exit the industry has beentaken over by other companies .
Although the kilo of product create is low , many greenhouse veggie growers have had a sound year . First , in fact , the reduction in production has led to high-pitched prices of greenhouse vegetables , such as Solanum melongena , peppers , and tomato . Over the whole year , almost all greenhouse vegetable prices are at a eminent level . However , the price of cucumber vine is now much downhearted again after peak at the beginning of this year .
Importance of CHPIn addition , nursery growers have benefited from the difference between flatulence and electrical energy prices . This so - call sparkspread provides nursery farmers with money because they sire electricity via cogeneration plants and supply it back to the grid to keep the electricity grid stable . The heat energy produce is used in the nursery . This will keep the income of veg agriculturalist at a reasonable level .
In particular , the great modern companies that have invested in CHPs and sustainability will have been capable to realize a good income this year . These entrepreneur not only realize a high income by generating electrical energy , but also by reducing costs . This is because they are capable to produce more efficiently . The advantage that more modern fellowship have over companies that have invested less in sustainability will stay to increase in the fall yr .
need remains stableThe demand for greenhouse vegetables will remain unchanging . buying powerfulness will improve next year , ABN AMRO expects , and healthier food will continue to be a musical theme for consumers in the coming days , two factors that will have a positive impact on the demand for glasshouse vegetable .
The increase in volumes could maybe depress damage somewhat . On the other hand , a issue of costs are really rising . For representative , labor costs are increasing , interest rates have risen , and greenhouse growers face a possible burden increase due to sustainability legislation . Other costs , such as fertilizer and gas , are lower and less explosive .
Sustainability taskHorticulture faces a major task to become more sustainable . The sector , like many other energy - intensive sector , is derive under increase social pressure sensation to use less fogy Department of Energy . This pressure comes in the form of politics measuring stick phasing out the quash tariff and limiting the freedom for electricity coevals limit . For business organization , this means an increased essence . On the other handwriting , subsidy dodge offer CRO for enthrone in energy - efficient nursery and using renewable energy .
flower gardening : expect increase in volumeAfter a 5.4 percent drop in mass in 2022 , ABN AMRO expect volumes to fall by 5 percentage this year . A number of companies barricade growing flush and plants late last year , and others have adjusted their farm scheme by reducing lighting , planting later , or switching to crops that are less vigour - intensive . The event of those who cease trading and adjust cultivation scheme is also patent in production volumes this year , especially in the first one-half of this year .
After 2023 , ABN AMRO expects volumes to increase . A number of reasons underlie this . First , ABN AMRO does not expect huge volatility in the gas price for next year . Many agriculturalist have sign contracts again at a lower gas price . This means that agriculturist will have less limited lighting and will , therefore , grow more again . This has the added advantage that , in some cases , the demanded timbre can also be delivered again . After all , it is authoritative for buyers to get uniform quality . Consequently , volume will increase in the fountain of 2024 , ABN AMRO expects .
Second , several companies have invest in making finish more sustainable , for example , with the help of LED lighting and dehumidifiers . These grower will again be able-bodied to produce in abundance . In particular , more modern large companies that have room to invest will then have an sharpness .
Under pressureWhether volume will rebound all the way back to old levels remains to be consider . The land area for agriculture and gardening is under insistence and is in competition with living accommodations , diversion , and nature . This also applies to some extent to the ornamental industrial plant cultivation area . As a result , the acreage will not increase much and may even shrink slightly . More intensive cultivation can still result in eminent production , but extensification can lead to lower volumes .
In summation , product volumes reckon on demand . For now , despite downcast purchasing top executive , demand still seems in line with usable supply . After all , pricing is reasonably good . For 2024 , uncertainty remains . ABN AMRO expect disposable income in the European Union to increase in 2024 . On the other hand , employment is expected to decline next yr , and the support give during the energy crisis is being phase out . Below the argumentation , then , is only meager maturation .
Moreover , retailers are loth to make large order because they do not want to be left with excess inventorying . This is also the case in many key - sell countries such as the United Kingdom and Germany . Furthermore , the geopolitical situation in Ukraine and the Middle East is affecting the requirement for thinned bloom . In addition , sustainability may play a more important role in consumers ' buying decisions . Cut flowers and flower bulbs , in special , are on a regular basis in the news negatively as a solution . transparence in production method acting and the use of crop protection can help keep the place in the mart and with consumers .
Source : ABN Amro
